Course — XTAL Strategies

Course

PE forward valuation

Beta · Q3 2026

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Course · Lighthouse

Access by invitation

Course · Lighthouse is available to verified institutional LPs.

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Course · Lighthouse

Course

A structured framework for institutional LPs to form and record forward expectations on private equity fund valuations. Each participant selects a fund from a verified panel of US buyout funds, reviews a quantitative projection anchored to the latest available verified data, adjusts their assumptions, and locks a forecast for the expected TVPI at various horizons to Y11 maturity.

Lighthouse

The consensus layer. Once the panel reaches critical mass, Lighthouse aggregates LP forecasts into a distribution — showing where verified institutional opinion clusters relative to the quantitative model. Forecasts are resolved against subsequent public disclosures, creating an auditable track record of LP forward accuracy.

Fund data sourced from public records disclosures of US state pension funds.
Methodology: DARC · SSRN 6725348 · XTAL Markets Limited

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Fund

Course

Identify

Lighthouse

✓ Clayton, Dubilier & Rice Fund X, L.P.

CD&R · 2018 · Large Buyout · $16bn · North America · USD

Your fund not listed? We accept verified fund data from institutional investors.

Select a fund

Current position · Sep 30 2025

TVPI

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DPI

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RVPI

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PICC

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Percentile

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Bell curve · forward projection

Fund (adjusted) Fund (unadjusted) Conditional Mean reversion (50th pct) Lower bound (−1σ / −2σ) bands

Adjust expectations

Market context · implied returns

Path	Std mkt regime	Expected growth / yr	Implied risk premium
Conditional	—	—	—
Mean reversion	—	—	—
Lower bound	—	—	—

Adjust and lock your forecast

— x

K-base ref.

Forecast deadline — December 15, 2026

Lock your Y11 forecast before the deadline to be included in the consensus panel

Q + 1

next quarter

Year + 1

12 months

Year + 3

36 months

Y11 Maturity

at maturity

✓ Pension Fund / Endowment

LP — institutional investor with direct PE fund commitments

Identify

🏛

Pension Fund / Endowment

LP with direct fund commitments

🏦

Fund of Funds / OCIO

Allocator managing PE programs

💼

Family Office / SWF

Direct or via fund LP stakes

🔄

Secondaries / Advisory

GP or secondary market professional

📊

Consultant / Placement

Advisor to institutional investors

🎓

Academic / Research

Private markets researcher

Lighthouse

Consensus Intelligence

Beta · Q3 2026

Backtest context

Predicted vs actual net value at Y11 · USD buyout · $10M commitment

±20% corridor ±50% outlier Fund · predicted P25–P75 historical range

Monetary error distribution · $M

Actual − Predicted. Green = ±20% corridor.

Panel consensus

Where does the panel expect this fund?

Panel forming · be among the first to contribute

Live

Panel forming.
Be among the first verified LPs to contribute your forecast.
Consensus will appear once the panel reaches critical mass.

TVPI range at Y11Share of forecasters

Your forecast — lock Y11 to submit

DARC model — —

Consensus by institutional type

Pension / Endowment

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forming

Secondaries

—

forming

Fund of Funds

—

forming

Breakdown by type available once panel reaches critical mass.

Lighthouse

See where verified institutional investors expect this fund to go — and how your forecast compares.

Request Lighthouse access →

Include name, institution and LinkedIn. Access granted within 24h.